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La curva de Phillips en México: ¿Existe una relación de largo plazo entre la inflación y la brecha del producto?


  • Alejandro Rodriguez Arana

    (Universidad Iberoamericana)


Este trabajo estima una curva de Phillips para México, la cual surge de un esquema de fijación de precios donde se establecen relaciones clientelares entre compradores y vendedores (Rotemberg (1982)). La estimación anual entre 1969 y 2008 muestra que existe una relación de largo plazo donde la inflación depende positivamente del salario real, el tipo de cambio real y la brecha del producto. Sin embargo, se necesitarían fuertes aumentos permanentes de inflación para apenas lograr una pequeña mejora en las otras variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Rodriguez Arana, 2012. "La curva de Phillips en México: ¿Existe una relación de largo plazo entre la inflación y la brecha del producto?," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 9(1), pages 57-81, Enero-Jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:9:y:2012:i:1:p:57-81

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hoekman & Bernard & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Trade and employment : stylized facts and research findings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3676, The World Bank.
    2. Gerry Boyle & Pauline McCormack, 2002. "Trade and technological explanations for changes in sectoral labour demand in OECD economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 617-635.
    3. Trefler, Daniel & Zhu, Susan Chun, 2010. "The structure of factor content predictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 195-207, November.
    4. Revenga, Ana, 1997. "Employment and Wage Effects of Trade Liberalization: The Case of Mexican Manufacturing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 20-43, July.
    5. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 2005. "Reformas para América Latina después del fundamentalismo neoliberal," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1888 edited by Cepal, December.
    6. Cragg, Michael Ian & Epelbaum, Mario, 1996. "Why has wage dispersion grown in Mexico? Is it the incidence of reforms or the growing demand for skills?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 99-116, October.
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    More about this item


    inflación; curva de Phillips; brecha del producto;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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