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Crossovers between births falls and deaths peaks during the COVID-19 pandemic: the Mexican case

Author

Listed:
  • Eliud Silva

    (Universidad Anahuac Mexico)

  • Alejandro Aguirre

    (El Colegio de Mexico, A. C.)

Abstract

To describe patterns of crossovers between births and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Likewise, use vital statistics to measure descents of deliveries by mothers’ ages. Official figures are analyzed to identify crossovers. Predictions from a multivariate time series model are emj ployed to estimate the dimension of birth descents in a counterfactual sense.Results: It is suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic is the reason for the anticipated crossover occurrence. The nega-tive trend of births suffers a dramatic fall. However, in some cases, there are recoveries. Limitations: According to official figures, there might be un-der-recordings of births and deaths due to the availability and access to Register offices. Originality: To identify the COVID-19 impact on the antici-pated occurrence of crossovers and birth falls in a country with previous public health problems.Conclusions: It is suggested that the anticipated occurrence of demographic crossovers resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic. The significant fall in the number of births may impact on an accelerated aging in this country.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliud Silva & Alejandro Aguirre, 2023. "Crossovers between births falls and deaths peaks during the COVID-19 pandemic: the Mexican case," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 20(2), pages 31-51, Julio-Dic.
    • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:20:y:2023:i:2:p:31-51
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    File URL: https://econoquantum.cucea.udg.mx/index.php/EQ/article/view/7296/6793
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; births; demographic crossovers; deaths; Mexico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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