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Estimacion de la tasa de sacrificio para Mexico,1998Q1-2018Q4

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Loria

    (Centro de Modelistica y Pronosticos Economicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM))

  • Raul Tirado

    (Centro de Modelistica y Pronosticos Economicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM))

  • Javier Valdez

    (Centro de Modelistica y Pronosticos Economicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM))

Abstract

Romer y Romer (1989) demostraron, para Estados Unidos, que la politica monetaria es exitosa en reducir la inflacion solo si es capaz de generar recesion economica. Si esto es cierto, la politica desinflacionaria que ha aplicado el Banco de Mexico tiene un costo en producto y empleo, por lo que no es socialmente neutral. Con una curva de Phillips Aceleracionista con brecha de desempleo, calculamos la tasa de sacrificio en Mexico (2002Q1-2018Q4) y encontramos que la brecha de desempleo necesaria para reducir en un punto la inflacion es de 2.525 puntos porcentuales. Mostramos que esta curva de Phillips es lineal y no presenta cambios estructurales y sugerimos que desde que se abandono el corto en 2008 la politica monetaria ha ganado eficiencia, y que la perdida de empleo que genera es transitoria porque la economia no ha salido de su trayectoria de equilibrio de mediano plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Loria & Raul Tirado & Javier Valdez, 2020. "Estimacion de la tasa de sacrificio para Mexico,1998Q1-2018Q4," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 17(1), pages 47-67, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:17:y:2020:i:1:p:47-67
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Loría & Raúl Tirado, 2022. "Sacrifice rate and labour precariousness in Mexico, 2005Q1-2019Q4," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 41(87), pages 427-456, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de sacrificio; politica desinflacionaria; Curva de Phillips Neokeyenesiana Aceleracionista.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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