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Convergence des vieillissements en Europe et retraites

  • Alexis Dantec
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    [eng] European ageing convergence and retirement pensions. Alexis Dantec. One of the most popular cause of difficulties for the retirement pension system is the future general ageing of the population. However, this ageing is much more complex than the growing old of an individual. It must be seen as dynamic, reversible and complex phenomenon. The increase of the mean age or the slowing-down of the population growth are only some indicators among others of this distortion of the demographic structure on behalf of the older. Whether the population is ageing on the top or at the basis, the consequences for the financial equi librium of the retirement funds are different. Moreover, this demographic phenomenon explains only one part of this equilibrium, as only the occupied active population actually contribute to the funds. The study of this general ageing in the fifteen European countries leads to the following conclusions. In long period, global convergence appears. But, in 1960, the demographic levels and dynamics were diffe rent in each country. Moreover, in some countries, the birth-rate and the migration movements notably improved around 1985 and the differences have become more marked in the short period. The past and future convergence of mortality and life expectancies are not sufficient to ensure the convergence of the general ageing process in immediate future. Hence, the difficulties of the retirement system due to this demo graphic phenomenon will not be of the same magnitude nor will they occur at the same date for all. [fre] Le vieillissement de la population est souvent mis en avant comme cause commune des difficultés futures des systèmes de retraite européens. Plus complexe que le vieillissement d'une personne, le vieillissement d'une population doit être appréhendé comme dynamique, réversible et décomposable. Cette déformation de la structure démographique au profit des plus âgés n'est mesuré que pour partie par l'augmentation de l'âge moyen ou le ralentissement de la croissance. Selon qu'il soit le fait, conjugué ou non, d'un vieillissement par la base ou par le sommet, les implications quant à l'équilibre financier des retraites ne seront pas les mêmes. Ce vieillissement ne pèse que sur une dimension de cet équilibre puisque seuls les actifs occupés contribuent effectivement au système de retraite. L'étude de ce vieillissement dans l'ensemble des quinze pays européens pris comme un tout, mais aussi dans leur disparité, aboutit aux conclusions suivantes. Une convergence globale est détectable à la fois de manière rétrospective et prospective, sur longue période. Mais, en 1960, les démographies des Quinze partent de niveaux et se meuvent selon des vitesses différenciés. De plus, un rebondissement notable en 1985, pour certains pays, de la natalité et/ou de l'immigration, accentuent encore ces différences en courte période. La convergence passée et future de la mortalité et de l'espérance de vie ne suffisent pas à assurer la convergence du phénomène de vieillissement dans un futur proche. Les problèmes d'équilibre des retraites encourus pour des raisons démographiques par les pays européens seront donc d'ampleur et selon des calendriers différents.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 64 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 177-202

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_64_1_1490
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1998.1490
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