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Croissance, qualifications et chômage

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  • Henri Sneessens

Abstract

[eng] This paper aims at a better understanding of the factors responsible for the increasing dualisation of the labour market, especially the effect of biased technological progress that may reduce, ceteris paribus, the demand for low skilled workers. The theoretical model extends the usual NAIRU analysis to the case with two types of labour (skilled and unskilled). The focus is on situations with permanent excess supply on the unskilled labour market; on the skilled labour market, firms may be constrained by labour supply shortages. One examines in this setup the consequences of biased technological change, of social security contributions and minimum wage regulations. Econometric results obtained on French data (1962- 1989) suggest that a susbstantial reduction in the relative labour cost of unskilled workers (20% or more) would be needed to eliminate the difference between the skilled and unskilled unemployment rates and bring the NAIRU down to more natural values. This objective could be reached by reducing the social security contributions levied on unskilled workers' wages. [fre] Le but de cet article est de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension des facteurs responsables de la dualisation croissante du marché du travail, en particulier le biais introduit par un progrès technique qui, toutes choses égales par ailleurs, réduit fortement les besoins en main-d'oeuvre non-qualifiée. Afin de permettre l'analyse des effets directs et indirects d'un tel biais technologique, l'on a construit un modèle théorique distinguant explicitement deux niveaux de qualification. Les effets indirects du biais technologique transitent via les comportements de fixation des prix et des salaires, et sont fonction de l'évolution des charges sociales et du salaire minimum. Le modèle a été estimé sur données annuelles françaises couvrant la période 1962- 1989. A composition donnée de la population active, on obtient qu'une réduction substantielle (20 % ou plus) du coût relatif de la main-d'oeuvre non-qualifiée serait nécessaire pour éliminer l'écart de taux de chômage entre qualifiés et non-qualifiés et créer les conditions d'un retour au plein emploi. Une telle réduction peut être obtenue

Suggested Citation

  • Henri Sneessens, 1994. "Croissance, qualifications et chômage," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(4), pages 1-33.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1994_num_9_4_964
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1994.964
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    Cited by:

    1. Van Haeperen, Béatrice, 1998. "La courbe de Beveridge : Belgique, 1970 - 1993," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1998019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Pierre Joly, 1997. "Présentation générale," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 301(1), pages 3-21.
    3. Sneessens, Henri R., 1998. "Technological Bias and Unemployment: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1999024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 00 Aug 1999.

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