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Apprentissage et équilibres à taches solaires. Un point de vue divinatoire

Author

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  • Gabriel Desgranges
  • Giorgio Negroni

Abstract

[fre] Dans un modèle simple à générations imbriquées, on étudie la coordination des anticipations sur un équilibre à taches solaires stationnaire (ESS) au moyen d'une approche « divinatoire » selon laquelle chaque agent s'efforce de deviner les anticipations des autres en tirant les conséquences d'hypothèses de connaissance commune de la rationalité des agents et de l'économie. On présente une caractérisation de la stabilité locale d'un ESS en termes d'élasticité de l'offre de travail et deux résultats d'existence d'ESS localement stables reposant respectivement sur le théorème de Poincaré-Hopf et sur un argument de bifurcation locale. [eng] Learning and sunspot equilibrium: an eductive viewpoint. . In a simple OLG model, we analyze expectations coordination on a Stationary Sunspot Equilibrium (SSE), using an "eductive" approach in which agents forecast the forecasting of other participants through Common Knowledge assumptions. We characterize the local stability of a SSE in terms of labor supply elasticity, and we give two results of existence of locally stable SSE by means both of Poincaré-Hopf Theorem and a local bifurcation argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Desgranges & Giorgio Negroni, 2001. "Apprentissage et équilibres à taches solaires. Un point de vue divinatoire," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(3), pages 583-593.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_3_410339
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2001.410339
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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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