IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pourquoi l'euro sera fort. Une approche par les taux de change d'équilibre


  • Michel Aglietta
  • Virginie Coudert
  • Camille Baulant


[fre] Pourquoi l'euro sera fort. Une approche par les taux de change d'équilibre. . Le modèle de taux de change d'équilibre proposé ici prend en compte l'effet Balassa et la soutenabilité de la position extérieure nette, compte tenu de la compétitivité hors-prix. Les tests sur trois monnaies européennes : mark, franc, et lire contre dollar montrent l'existence d'une relation de coïntégration entre les taux de change réels observés et les variables fondamentales du modèle. L'agrégation de ces trois monnaies selon leur poids dans l'ECU permet de construire un proxy du taux de change d'équilibre de l'euro contre dollar. Les contributions des diffé­rentes variables sont analysées afin de mieux comprendre leurs implications sur le taux de change d'équilibre de l'euro. [eng] Why the euro will be strong : an approach based on the equilibrium exchange rates. . The real equilibrium exchange rate proposed in this paper is the long run parity which is consistent with the Balassa effect and the sustainability of the external position. Non-price competitiveness factors are also taken into account. Tests are made for three European currencies : mark, franc and lira against dollar. Observed data of real exchange rates are shown to be cointegrated with the fundamentals of the model. The three European currencies are then aggregated according to their weight in the ECU, in order to construct a proxy of the euro. An equilibrium exchange rate of the euro against dollar is calculated and the contributions of the different fundamentals are analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert & Camille Baulant, 1998. "Pourquoi l'euro sera fort. Une approche par les taux de change d'équilibre," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 721-731.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1998_num_49_3_410004

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Michel Fouquin & Nanno Mulder & Laurence Nayman & Khalid Sekkat & Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2001. "Sector Sensitivity to Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Working Papers 2001-11, CEPII research center.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1998_num_49_3_410004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.