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L'enquête mensuelle de conjoncture auprès des industriels

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  • Claude Malhomme

Abstract

[fre] L'I.N.S.E.E. a effectué sa première enquête de conjoncture il y a dix-huit ans; depuis 1962, le sondage est mensuel. L'échantillon compte un peu plus de 2 000 industriels. Ceux-ci sont invités à donner leur opinion sur les principales variables qui caractérisent la marche de leur entreprise : production, commandes, stocks, prix. Les questions sont posées sous forme qualitative, ce qui permet au chef d'entreprise lui-même de remplir le questionnaire, et favorise la rapidité du dépouillement. L'enquête fournit ainsi dans des délais très brefs (il s'écoule environ 5 semaines entre l'envoi des questionnaires et la diffusion des résultats) des informations sur des sujets qui malgré leur importance, ne sont généralement pas connus par d'autres sources. La forme qualitative des résultats oblige à considérer l'évolution des réponses plutôt que les réponses elles-mêmes. La comparaison avec les quelques statistiques, généralement partielles, qui existent sur les sujets abordés montre cependant que malgré leur forme particulière et la légèreté du sondage, les résultats obtenus donnent une image des plus correctes de la réalité. Deux exemples indiquent clairement l'intérêt d'une telle enquête : lors du lancement du plan de stabilisation en 1963, les réponses des industriels ont permis de suivre au mois le mois, la situation de l'industrie; ils ont en particulier permis de prévoir le plafonnement de la production en 1964, ainsi que la reprise, à partir du début de 1965. De même, en 1968, après les événements de mai, l'enquête a permis de savoir dès le milieu du mois de juillet que la production était répartie à un rythme vigoureux et qu'elle augmenterait encore fortement à la rentrée. [eng] Short-term economic survey among industrialists . I.N.S.E.E. made its first short term economic survey eighteen years ago; since 1962, the sample survey has been made every month. The sample consists of rather more than 2 000 industrialists, who are asked for their opinion on the main variables which characterise the progress of their business such as production, orders, stocks,' prices. , The questions are put in qualitative form, thus enabling the head of the business to answer the questionnaire himself, as well as speeding up the processing.- The survey. thus provides within a very short time (it takes about five weeks from the despatch of the questionnaires to the circulation of the results) information on subjects which, in spite of their, importance, are not generally known from other sources. The qualitative form of the results makes it necessary to consider the trend of the replies rather than the replies themselves. Comparison with the few statistics, generally partial, which exist on the subjects covered shows that, in spite of their particular form and the small coverage of the sample, the results obtained give one of the most accurate pictures of the true position. Two examples clearly show the value of such a survey; when the Stabilisation Plan was launched in 1963, the replies of industrialists made it possible to follow the situation of industry month by month; in particular, they made it possible to foresee the levelling off of production in 1964 and the recovery from the beginning of 1965. Similarly, in 1968, after the events of May, the survey indicated that as early as mid-July production had resumed at a sharp pace and that it would increase still more after the end of the summer holidays.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Malhomme, 1969. "L'enquête mensuelle de conjoncture auprès des industriels," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 7(1), pages 37-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1969_num_7_1_2200
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1969.2200
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1969.2200
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacky Fayolle, 1980. "L'attitude des entreprises face à la concurrence étrangère," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 124(1), pages 59-78.
    2. Alain Abou & Daniel Szpiro, 1984. "Degré de validité des opinions des chefs d'entreprise pour les prévisions de production," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 7(1), pages 157-170.

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