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Simulace vývoje výdajů a příjmů důchodového systému České republiky do roku 2050
[The simulation of the future development of expenditure and revenue of the czech pension security scheme up to 2050]


  • Radka Rutarová
  • Michal Slavík


The long-term sustainability of the public finance in the context of population ageing is becoming a hot topic in most of the European countries including the Czech Republic. Moreover the Czech population will be one of the oldest in the world according to the forecasts of different institutions (UN, OECD, etc.). It poses challenge for the Czech pension security scheme. This paper presents possible scenarios of the future development and illustrates future fiscal impacts of the ageing assuming a preservation of the current Czech pension security scheme in the period up to 2050. The analysis is based on a detailed one-year age structure. This allows us to simulate the influence of the changes in component parameters of the current scheme on its future situation (for example, changes in retirement age limits). The main conclusion is that there is a rather small impact of these parameters changes on the expected future imbalance of the Czech pension system. Therefore a more fundamental reform of the current pension system should be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Radka Rutarová & Michal Slavík, 2005. "Simulace vývoje výdajů a příjmů důchodového systému České republiky do roku 2050
    [The simulation of the future development of expenditure and revenue of the czech pension security scheme up to 2050
    ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:2:id:503

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Torgler, Benno, 2002. " Speaking to Theorists and Searching for Facts: Tax Morale and Tax Compliance in Experiments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 657-683, December.
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    More about this item


    ageing; demographic development; population forecast; sustainability of the public finance; fiscal projection; pension security scheme;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts


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