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Exchange rate changes effects on foreign direct investment

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Hušek
  • Václava Pánková

Abstract

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important phenomenon in international economic relations. Generally, FDI is studied from the point of view of capital and technology transfers to the recipient countries while respecting a basic fact that profit is the main investor's interest. In this paper in Part 2, some representative examples of typical FDI models are presented, whereas Part 3 should justify the specification of a model which is formulated and applied in Part 4. Investors can be driven by the expectation of maximum profit which would be obtained by allocating FDI according to the exchange rate volatility, i.e. after a sudden large devaluation of the host country currency large FDI inflows will follow as future appreciation is expected. Large exchange rate shocks are described with the help of skewness. Negative skewness means that the appreciations occur more often. Reasoning of the model explaining FDI by mean, standard deviation and skewness of changes of exchange rate is provided. An application to two New EU Members and two ASEAN countries is presented using panel data and seemingly unrelated regression technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Hušek & Václava Pánková, 2008. "Exchange rate changes effects on foreign direct investment," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2008(2), pages 118-126.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2008:y:2008:i:2:id:324:p:118-126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 473-500.
    2. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "Contagion, Globalization, and the Volatility of Capital Flows," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 15-41 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention," NBER Working Papers 8529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Breuss, Fritz & Fink, Gerhard & Haiss, Peter, 2004. "How well prepared are the New Member States for the European Monetary Union?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 769-791, October.
    6. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States: will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Václav Žďárek, 2009. "Moderní způsoby produkce a přímé zahraniční investice
      [Modern methods of production and foreign direct investment]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2009(4), pages 509-543.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign direct investment; panel data; exchange rate volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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