Demographic forecast modelling using SSA-XGBoost for smart population management based on multi-sources data

Population prediction could provide effective data support for social and economic planning and decision-making, especially for the sub-national population forecasting accurately. In addition to realizing efficient smart population management, this research focuses primarily on the combination model for forecasting demographic data based on machine learning. As to the higher error of population forecasts due to high population density and mobility, a dynamic monitoring method based on mobile communication big data such as mobile phone signals is proposed, combined with more structurally stable traditional statistical data, it forms a multi-source dataset that possesses both accuracy and real-time characteristics. In the study, the Extreme Gradient Boosting tree (XGBoost) model is used to identify the base model to create a reliable predictive model for population dynamic monitoring. The sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is investigated to obtain more reasonable parameters of XGBoost to improve forecast accuracy. The combination model is verified based on the data of the 6th and 7th national population census and mobile phone signal data in Hebei Province, obtained the predicted data for mortality and migration, categorized by age and gender, for the following year. Subsequently, the research compared the performance of different metaheuristic algorithms and various gradient-boosting machine-learning models on the dataset. The SSA-XGBoost model demonstrates a better prediction performance in the demographic data forecast with better R2 0.9984 and a lower mean absolute error of 0.0002 and a mean squared error of 6.9184. The results of the comparative experiments and cross-validation show that the proposed predictive model can effectively forecast the demographic data for sub-national regions to realize smart population management.