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Predicting Iran’s achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Narges Ebrahimi
  • Sarvenaz Shahin
  • Sogol Koolaji
  • Ali Ghanbari
  • Parinaz Mehdipour
  • Masoud Masinaei
  • Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam
  • Negar Rezaei
  • Azin Ghamari
  • Mohammad-Reza Malekpour
  • Nazila Rezaei
  • Hamidreza Jamshidi
  • Bagher Larijani
  • Ardeshir Khosravi
  • Farshad Farzadfar

Abstract

Background: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems’ performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran’s U5MR and NMR status during 2010–2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection. Study design: To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME. Results: In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4–18·0) and 11·8 (10·4–13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1–8·9) and 3·1% (0·9–5·8) during 2010–2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved. Conclusions: Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care.

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  • Narges Ebrahimi & Sarvenaz Shahin & Sogol Koolaji & Ali Ghanbari & Parinaz Mehdipour & Masoud Masinaei & Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam & Negar Rezaei & Azin Ghamari & Mohammad-Reza Malekpour & Nazila Rezaei , 2023. "Predicting Iran’s achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0283784
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283784
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    1. repec:plo:pmed00:1000265 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michel Guillot, 2015. "Tools for Demographic Estimation," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(2), pages 259-260, July.
    3. Monica Alexander & Leontine Alkema, 2018. "Global estimation of neonatal mortality using a Bayesian hierarchical splines regression model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(15), pages 335-372.
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