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Risk assessment of debris flow disaster based on the cloud model—Probability fusion method

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Listed:
  • Li Li
  • Bo Ni
  • Yue Qiang
  • Shixin Zhang
  • Dongsheng Zhao
  • Ling Zhou

Abstract

This paper proposes a new debris flow risk assessment method based on the Monte Carlo Simulation and an Improved Cloud Model. The new method tests the consistency of coupling weights according to the characteristics of the Cloud Model firstly, so as to determine the weight boundary of each evaluation index. Considering the uncertain characteristics of weights, the Monte Carlo Simulation is used to converge the weights in a minimal fuzzy interval, then the final weight value of each evaluation index is obtained. Finally, a hierarchical comprehensive cloud is established by the Improving Cloud Model, which is used to input the comprehensive expectation composed of weights to obtain the risk level of debris flow. Through statistical analysis, this paper selects Debris flow scale (X1), Basin area (X2), Drainage density (X3), Basin relative relief (X4), Main channel length (X5), Maximum rainfall (X6) as evaluation indexes. A total of 20 debris flow gullies were selected as study cases (8 debris flow gullies as model test, 12 debris flow gullies in reservoir area as example study). The comparison of the final evaluation results with those of other methods shows that the method proposed in this paper is a more reliable evaluation method for debris flow prevention and control.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Li & Bo Ni & Yue Qiang & Shixin Zhang & Dongsheng Zhao & Ling Zhou, 2023. "Risk assessment of debris flow disaster based on the cloud model—Probability fusion method," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(2), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0281039
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wanying Zhong & Yue Wang, 2022. "A study on the spatial and temporal variation of urban integrated vulnerability in Southwest China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2855-2882, December.
    2. Zhuguang Lan & Ming Huang, 2018. "Safety assessment for seawall based on constrained maximum entropy projection pursuit model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1165-1178, April.
    3. Huaizhi Su & Meng Yang & Yeyuan Kang, 2016. "Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Debris Flow Risk in Hydropower Projects," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1151-1163, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoyi Zhou & Ke Hu & Tingqiang Zhou, 2024. "Collapse risk assessment based on linear programming variable weight-cloud model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(12), pages 1-21, December.

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