IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0225223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changes in patterns of mortality rates and years of life lost due to firearms in the United States, 1999 to 2016: A joinpoint analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hannah M Bailey
  • Yi Zuo
  • Feng Li
  • Jae Min
  • Krishna Vaddiparti
  • Mattia Prosperi
  • Jeffrey Fagan
  • Sandro Galea
  • Bindu Kalesan

Abstract

Background: Firearm-related death rates and years of potential life lost (YPLL) vary widely between population subgroups and states. However, changes or inflections in temporal trends within subgroups and states are not fully documented. We assessed temporal patterns and inflections in the rates of firearm deaths and %YPLL due to firearms for overall and by sex, age, race/ethnicity, intent, and states in the United States between 1999 and 2016. Methods: We extracted age-adjusted firearm mortality and YPLL rates per 100,000, and %YPLL from 1999 to 2016 by using the WONDER (Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) database. We used Joinpoint Regression to assess temporal trends, the inflection points, and annual percentage change (APC) from 1999 to 2016. Results: National firearm mortality rates were 10.3 and 11.8 per 100,000 in 1999 and 2016, with two distinct segments; a plateau until 2014 followed by an increase of APC = 7.2% (95% CI 3.1, 11.4). YPLL rates were from 304.7 and 338.2 in 1999 and 2016 with a steady APC increase in %YPLL of 0.65% (95% CI 0.43, 0.87) from 1999 to an inflection point in 2014, followed by a larger APC in %YPLL of 5.1% (95% CI 0.1, 10.4). The upward trend in firearm mortality and YPLL rates starting in 2014 was observed in subgroups of male, non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanic whites and for firearm assaults. The inflection points for firearm mortality and YPLL rates also varied across states. Conclusions: Within the United States, firearm mortality rates and YPLL remained constant between 1999 and 2014 and has been increasing subsequently. There was, however, an increase in firearm mortality rates in several subgroups and individual states earlier than 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Hannah M Bailey & Yi Zuo & Feng Li & Jae Min & Krishna Vaddiparti & Mattia Prosperi & Jeffrey Fagan & Sandro Galea & Bindu Kalesan, 2019. "Changes in patterns of mortality rates and years of life lost due to firearms in the United States, 1999 to 2016: A joinpoint analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0225223
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225223
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0225223
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0225223&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0225223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (plosone). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.