Developing a model to predict unfavourable treatment outcomes in patients with tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus co-infection in Delhi, India

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection have worse TB treatment outcomes compared to patients with TB alone. The distribution of unfavourable treatment outcomes differs by socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, allowing for early identification of patients at risk. Objective: To develop a statistical model that can provide individual probabilities of unfavourable outcomes based on demographic and clinical characteristics of TB-HIV co-infected patients. Methodology: We used data from all TB patients with known HIV-positive test results (aged ≥15 years) registered for first-line anti-TB treatment (ATT) in 2015 under the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) in Delhi, India. We included variables on demographics and pre-treatment clinical characteristics routinely recorded and reported to RNTCP and the National AIDS Control Organization. Binomial logistic regression was used to develop a statistical model to estimate probabilities of unfavourable TB treatment outcomes (i.e., death, loss to follow-up, treatment failure, transfer out of program, and a switch to drug-resistant regimen). Results: Of 55,260 TB patients registered for ATT in 2015 in Delhi, 928 (2%) had known HIV-positive test results. Of these, 816 (88%) had drug-sensitive TB and were ≥15 years. Among 816 TB-HIV patients included, 157 (19%) had unfavourable TB treatment outcomes. We developed a model for predicting unfavourable outcomes using age, sex, disease classification (pulmonary versus extra-pulmonary), TB treatment category (new or previously treated case), sputum smear grade, known HIV status at TB diagnosis, antiretroviral treatment at TB diagnosis, and CD4 cell count at ATT initiation. The chi-square p-value for model calibration assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 0.15. The model discrimination, measured as the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, was 0.78. Conclusion: The model had good internal validity, but should be validated with an independent cohort of TB-HIV co-infected patients to assess its performance before clinical or programmatic use.