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A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Author

Listed:
  • Helder Novais Bastos
  • Nuno S Osório
  • António Gil Castro
  • Angélica Ramos
  • Teresa Carvalho
  • Leonor Meira
  • David Araújo
  • Leonor Almeida
  • Rita Boaventura
  • Patrícia Fragata
  • Catarina Chaves
  • Patrício Costa
  • Miguel Portela
  • Ivo Ferreira
  • Sara Pinto Magalhães
  • Fernando Rodrigues
  • Rui Sarmento-Castro
  • Raquel Duarte
  • João Tiago Guimarães
  • Margarida Saraiva

Abstract

Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8–7.9), age ≥50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7–4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4–4.4), ≥1 significant comorbidity—HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease–(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–3.8), and hemoglobin

Suggested Citation

  • Helder Novais Bastos & Nuno S Osório & António Gil Castro & Angélica Ramos & Teresa Carvalho & Leonor Meira & David Araújo & Leonor Almeida & Rita Boaventura & Patrícia Fragata & Catarina Chaves & Pat, 2016. "A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0162797
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0162797
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Karel G M Moons & Joris A H de Groot & Walter Bouwmeester & Yvonne Vergouwe & Susan Mallett & Douglas G Altman & Johannes B Reitsma & Gary S Collins, 2014. "Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies: The CHARMS Checklist," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, October.
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