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Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective

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  • Chun-Hu Li
  • Jun-Jie Mao
  • You-Jia Wu
  • Bin Zhang
  • Xun Zhuang
  • Gang Qin
  • Hong-Mei Liu

Abstract

Background: Understanding geospatial impacts of multi-sourced influencing factors on the epidemic of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is of great significance for formulating disease control policies tailored to regional-specific needs, yet the knowledge is very limited. We aim to identify and further quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on HFMD dynamics. Methods: We collected monthly province-level HFMD incidence and related environmental and socioeconomic data in China during 2009–2018. Hierarchical Bayesian models were constructed to investigate the spatiotemporal relationships between regional HFMD and various covariates: linear and nonlinear effects for environmental covariates, and linear effects for socioeconomic covariates. Results: The spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD cases was highly heterogeneous, indicated by the Lorenz curves and the corresponding Gini indices. The peak time (R2 = 0.65, P = 0.009), annual amplitude (R2 = 0.94, P

Suggested Citation

  • Chun-Hu Li & Jun-Jie Mao & You-Jia Wu & Bin Zhang & Xun Zhuang & Gang Qin & Hong-Mei Liu, 2023. "Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(5), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0011286
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286
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