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La crisis de la deuda y la agricultura latinoamericana

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  • Michael J. Twomey.

    () (University of Michigan Dearborn)

Abstract

¿En qué medida contribuyó el débil comportamiento de la producción agropecuaria a la actual crisis de la deuda externa en América Latina? ¿En qué grado esta ayudando la recuperación del agro a resolver dicha crisis? Trataremos de dar respuesta a estas interrogantes, analizando algunas de las relaciones entre los problemas de la deuda y el sector agropecuario. Se intentará demostrar que el papel de la agricultura fue esencialmente secundario en el desarrollo de la crisis, dada la tendencia de crecimiento de la producción a largo plazo. Además, las fuertes devaluaciones de los tipos de cambio dentro de los programas de estabilización no lograron mejorar los incentivos para los sectores productivos, particularmente de la agricultura. En vez de señalar a la baja elasticidad de la oferta como la principal razón de la baja producción agropecuaria, se resaltaran cuatro factores. Primero, los programas de austeridad han reducido la disponibilidad del crédito (en términos reales), y la de importantes insumos físicos a la producción, como por ejemplo los fertilizantes. Segundo, la reducción de los subsidios estatales ha afectado negativamente a la producción agropecuaria. Tercero hubo una caída significativa de los precios agropecuarios en el mercado mundial. Finalmente, la aceleración de la inflación ha aumentado la incertidumbre, buscando los cambios en precios relativos. Cualquier beneficio de los programas para obtener los precios correctos, (o “getting the prices right”) corre el riesgo de ser anulado por la aparente disminución en la inversión sectorial tanto a mediano como a largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Twomey., 1989. "La crisis de la deuda y la agricultura latinoamericana," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 0(24), pages 69-100.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:1989:i:24:p:69-100
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    File URL: http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/economia/article/view/494/484
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Enders, Walter & Falk, Barry, 1984. "A Microeconomic Test of Money Neutrality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 666-669.
    2. Blinder, Alan S, 1982. "Inventories and Sticky Prices: More on the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 334-348, June.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
    4. Stanley Fischer, 1980. "On Activist Monetary Policy with Rational Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 211-247 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Starleaf, Dennis R. & Meyers, William H. & Womack, Abner W., 1985. "The Impact of Inflation on the Real Income of U.S. Farmers," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10858, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Florence Contré & Ian Goldin, 1991. "L'agriculture en période d'ajustement au Brésil," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 32(126), pages 271-302.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Latin American debt;

    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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