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Competitive dynamics in pharmaceutical markets: A case study in the chronic cardiac disease market

Author

Listed:
  • M Kunc

    (Warwick Business School, Coventry, UK)

  • R Kazakov

    (BGPharmA, Sofia, Bulgaria)

Abstract

A modelling project involved system dynamics simulation of chronic cardiac disease in Bulgaria, examining the dynamic behaviour of a cardiac drug molecule in the market. The system dynamics model was calibrated using market data sourced from the Bulgarian National Health Care Fund, the Bulgarian Generic Pharmaceutical Association and a market research firm. The main results of the study showed that the timing of access to market was a critical driver in reducing prices and providing wider, as well as more affordable, access for patients to medicinal therapy. Our findings indicate that healthcare authorities may obtain savings while, at the same time, they may provide conditions for more patients to be treated depending on the timing of access to market of new generic drugs.

Suggested Citation

  • M Kunc & R Kazakov, 2013. "Competitive dynamics in pharmaceutical markets: A case study in the chronic cardiac disease market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 64(12), pages 1790-1799, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:64:y:2013:i:12:p:1790-1799
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Kunc, 2021. "A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    2. Diego Damásio Lima & Daniel Pacheco Lacerda & Miguel Afonso Sellitto, 2017. "Systemic Analysis of the Brazilian Production Chain of Semiconductors: Graphic Representation and Leverage Points," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 295-316, June.
    3. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    4. Willis, Graham & Cave, Siôn & Kunc, Martin, 2018. "Strategic workforce planning in healthcare: A multi-methodology approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 250-263.
    5. Rossen Kazakov & Martin Kunc, 2016. "Foreseeing the Dynamics of Strategy: An Anticipatory Systems Perspective," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Saba Pourreza & Misagh Faezipour & Miad Faezipour, 2022. "Eye-SCOR: A Supply Chain Operations Reference-Based Framework for Smart Eye Status Monitoring Using System Dynamics Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Redha Taiar, 2020. "A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-27, August.

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