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Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Musso

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Steven Phillips

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

"Program numbers" from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Musso & Steven Phillips, 2002. "Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-3.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:49:y:2002:i:1:p:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, pages 347-386.
    2. Lin, Vera Shanshan & Goodwin, Paul & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-174.
    3. Roberto Benelli, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Boost Private Capital Inflows? the Role of Program Size and Policy Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 03/231, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Graham Bird, 2005. "Over-optimism and the IMF," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1355-1373, September.
    5. Ruben Atoyan & Patrick Conway, 2011. "Projecting macroeconomic outcomes: Evidence from the IMF," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 415-441, September.
    6. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
    7. Mikhail Golosov & John R King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 02/236, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Leal Linares, Teresa & Pérez García, Javier J., 2011. "Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado/The Performance of the Budgetary Target of the Central Government in Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 909(14á.)-9, Diciembre.
    9. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
    10. Juan Zalduendo & Catia Batista, 2004. "Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?," IMF Working Papers 04/203, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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