Is the Permanent Income Hypothesis Really Well-Suited for Forecasting?
This paper first tests the restrictions implied by Hall's  version of the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) obtained from a bivariate system of labor income and savings, using quarterly data over the period of 1947:01–2008:03 for the US economy, and then uses the model to forecast changes in labor income over the period of 1991:01–2008:03, using 1947:01–1990:04 as the in-sample. First, our results indicate the overwhelming rejection of the restrictions on the data implied by the PIH. Second, we found that, when compared to univariate and bivariate versions of classical and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, the PIH model, in general, is outperformed by all other models in terms of the average Root Mean Squared Errors for one- to eight-quarters-ahead forecasts for the changes in labor income. Finally, as far as forecasting is concerned, we found the most tight Gibbs-sampled univarite BVAR to perform the best. In sum, we do not find evidence for the US data to be consistent with the PIH, neither does the PIH model perform better relative to alternative atheoretical models in forecasting changes in labor income over an out-of-sample horizon that was characterized by high degree of volatility for the variable of interest.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 37 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/|
Postal:c/o Dr. Alexandre Olbrecht, The Anisfield School of Business 205, Ramapo College, 505 Ramapo Valley Road, Ramapo, New Jersey 07430, USA
Phone: (201) 684-7346
Web page: https://www.qu.edu/eea/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/41302|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:easeco:v:37:y:2011:i:2:p:165-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.