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The Evolving Structure of the American Economy and the Employment Challenge

Author

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  • Michael Spence

    (1] Department of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University, 44 West 4th Street, Room 7–83, New York, NY 10012, USA.[2] Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.[3] Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.[4] Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, USA.)

  • Sandile Hlatshwayo

    (1] Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, 530 Evans Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.[2] Department of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University, 44 West 4th Street, Suite 11–160, New York, NY 10012, USA.)

Abstract

This paper examines the evolving structure of the American economy, specifically the trends in employment, value added, and value added per employee from 1990 to 2008. Employing historical time series data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US industries are separated into internationally tradable and nontradable components, allowing for employment and value added trends at both the industry and the aggregate level to be examined. Value added grew across the economy, but almost all of the incremental employment increase of 27.3 million jobs was on the nontradable side, where government and health care are the largest employers and provided the largest increments (an additional 10.4 million jobs) over the past two decades. There are obvious questions about whether those trends can continue; without fast job creation in the nontradable sector during this period, the United States would already have faced a major employment challenge. The nontradable sector also experienced much slower growth in value added per employee; because value added per employee is highly correlated with income, it goes a long way to explain the stagnation of wages across large segments of the workforce. The evolution of the US economy supports the notion of there being a long-term structural challenge with respect to the quantity and quality of employment opportunities in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Spence & Sandile Hlatshwayo, 2012. "The Evolving Structure of the American Economy and the Employment Challenge," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(4), pages 703-738, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:54:y:2012:i:4:p:703-738
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    Cited by:

    1. Reis, Anabela & Heitor, Manuel & Amaral, Miguel & Mendonça, Joana, 2016. "Revisiting industrial policy: Lessons learned from the establishment of an automotive OEM in Portugal," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 113(PB), pages 195-205.
    2. Haifang Huang & Yao Tang, 2016. "How Did Exchange Rates Affect Employment In U.S. Cities?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(4), pages 678-697, October.
    3. Elise S. Brezis & Gilad Brand, 2018. "Productivity Gap between Sectors and Double Duality in Labor Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 725-749, September.
    4. Angjellari-Dajci, Fiorentina & Cebula, Richard & Boylan, Robert & Borg, Rody, 2015. "Uncovering Hidden Industry Linkages in Northeast Florida’s Regional Economy: The Case for Export Expansion in Florida’s Fourth Largest MSA," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 45(2).
    5. Ralitza DIMOVA & Karim STEPHAN, 2020. "Inequality of opportunity and (unequal) opportunities in the youth labour market: How is the Arab world different?," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 159(2), pages 217-242, June.
    6. Chen, Liming & Felipe, Jesus & Kam, Andrew J.Y. & Mehta, Aashish, 2021. "Is employment globalizing?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 74-92.
    7. Kemeny, Thomas & Osman, Taner, 2017. "The wider impacts of high-technology employment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101854, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Naude, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2015. "Industrialisation, Innovation, Inclusion," MERIT Working Papers 2015-043, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Alan B. Krueger, 2015. "Understanding differences in job growth in Europe, Canada and the United States: what went wrong in the United States?," Chapters, in: John Karl Scholz & Hyungypo Moon & Sang-Hyup Lee (ed.), Social Policies in an Age of Austerity, chapter 4, pages 83-104, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Michele Benvenuti & Luca Casolaro & Elena Gennari, 2014. "Metrics of Innovation: Measuring the Italian Gap," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-50.
    11. Korkut Alp Erturk, 2019. "Where Did Good Jobs Go? Acemoglu and Marx on Induced (Skill Replacing) Technical Change," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2019_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    12. Chama Chipeta, 2022. "Analysing The Employment Effects Of The Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Openness On South Africa’S Non-Tradable Sectors," JOURNAL STUDIA UNIVERSITATIS BABES-BOLYAI NEGOTIA, Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Business.
    13. Thor Berger & Carl Benedikt Frey, 2016. "Structural Transformation in the OECD: Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    14. Bellmann, Lutz & Gerner, Hans-Dieter & Hübler, Olaf, 2013. "Investment under Company-Level Pacts," IZA Discussion Papers 7195, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Isidro Soloaga & Mariana Pereira, 2013. "Local Multipliers and the Informal Sector in Mexico 2000-2010," Working Papers 0513, Universidad Iberoamericana, Department of Economics.
    16. João Amador & Ana Cristina Soares, 2017. "Markups and bargaining power in tradable and non-tradable sectors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 669-694, September.
    17. Kemeny, Tom & Osman, Taner, 2018. "The wider impacts of high-technology employment: Evidence from U.S. cities," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(9), pages 1729-1740.
    18. Arvind Subramanian & Martin Kessler, 2013. "The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future," Working Paper Series WP13-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    19. Mealy, Penny & Farmer, J. Doyne & Hausmann, Ricardo, 2018. "Determining the Differences that Matter: Development and Divergence in US States over 1850-2010," Working Paper Series rwp18-030, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    20. Sandile Hlatshwayo & Michael Spence, 2014. "Demand and Defective Growth Patterns: The Role of the Tradable and Non-tradable Sectors in an Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 272-277, May.
    21. Lutz Arnold & Stefanie Trepl, 2015. "A North-South Trade Model of Offshoring and Unemployment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 999-1039, November.
    22. Elise S. Brezis, 2018. "Elitism in Higher Education and Inequality: Why Are the Nordic Countries So Special?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 53(4), pages 201-208, July.
    23. Korkut Erturk, 2015. "Economics of Unlimited Supply of Labor and Asymmetric Power," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2015_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    24. J. David Richardson & Asha Sundaram, 2013. "Sizing Up US Export Disincentives for a New Generation of National-Security Export Controls," Policy Briefs PB13-13, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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