Giving birth to innovation (or beware of bad narratives)

Birth rates are falling around the world with a rapid convergence down across regions and countries. The United Nations predicts that the world population will be at the threshold consistent with a stable population, or zero population growth by 2050 leading to much hand wrigning among analysts and policy makers. A number of self-reinforcing forces are at play but I argue that a stable population is a natural result of the move toward market economies and the resulting rise in living standards, education and empowerment of women, and better health outcomes. It is not only a reality to be accepted but an accomplishment to be celebrated. There is no doubt that declining birth rates add pressure to social insurance systems. The finances of these programs need to be restructures and the transition to a zero-population growth world dealt with. But we are in a better position to address these challenges from a position of notably higher living standards and we need to focus our thinking on innovation and productivity improvements rather than total economic growth, the source of improvement in per capita well being. Moving toward a zero-population growth world will also be a tailwind in addressing the existential challenges of climate change.