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Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession

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  • Herman O Stekler
  • Raj M Talwar

Abstract

We examine the quantitative forecasts of Wall Street Journal economists made during the Great Recession. The recession was not predicted in advance, and the severity of the decline was not recognized immediately. An important problem was that the real-time data did not reflect the actual state of the economy and contributed to the forecast errors. At times there was substantial disagreement among the forecasters. A time-series forecast disagreement might provide valuable information about impending recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Herman O Stekler & Raj M Talwar, 2013. "Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 48(2), pages 113-120, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:48:y:2013:i:2:p:113-120
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    Cited by:

    1. Yongchen Zhao, 2020. "Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 77-97, November.
    2. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
    4. Herman O. Stekler & Hilary Symington, 2014. "How Did The Fomc View The Great Recession As It Was Happening?: Evaluating The Minutes From Fomc Meetings, 2006-2010," Working Papers 2014-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

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