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The State Price Density Implied by Crude Oil Futures and Option Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Christoffersen
  • Kris Jacobs
  • Xuhui (Nick) Pan

Abstract

Both large oil price increases and decreases are associated with deteriorating economic conditions. The projection of the state price density (SPD) onto oil returns estimated from oil futures and option prices displays a U-shaped pattern. Because investors assign high state prices to large negative and large positive oil returns, the U-shaped SPD may steepen in either tail when economic conditions deteriorate. The positive return region of the SPD is more closely related to economic conditions. The oil SPD contains information about economic conditions and future security returns that is distinct from the information in the stock index SPD.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Xuhui (Nick) Pan, 2022. "The State Price Density Implied by Crude Oil Futures and Option Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 1064-1103.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:2:p:1064-1103.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhab011
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Brown & Nida Çakır Melek & Johannes Matschke & Sai Sattiraju, 2023. "The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices," Research Working Paper RWP 23-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Jacobs, Kris & Li, Bingxin, 2023. "Option Returns, Risk Premiums, and Demand Pressure in Energy Markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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