Does Sentiment Measured Through Language Models Encompass a Broader Expanse of Information From the Options Market?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1002/fut.70066
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Riza Demirer & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022.
"Risk aversion and the predictability of crude oil market volatility: A forecasting experiment with random forests,"
Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(8), pages 1755-1767, August.
- Riza Demirer & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2019. "Risk Aversion and the Predictability of Crude Oil Market Volatility: A Forecasting Experiment with Random Forests," Working Papers 201972, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Sanjiv R. Das & Mike Y. Chen, 2007. "Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1375-1388, September.
- Weiguo Zhang & Xue Gong & Chao Wang & Xin Ye, 2021. "Predicting stock market volatility based on textual sentiment: A nonlinear analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1479-1500, December.
- An N. Q. Cao & Michel A. Robe, 2022.
"Market uncertainty and sentiment around USDA announcements,"
Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 250-275, February.
- Cao, Nguyen Que An & Robe, Michel A., 2020. "Market Uncertainty and Sentiment around USDA Announcements," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304497, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
- Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015.
"Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
- Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," CEMA Working Papers 676, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Glasserman, Paul & Mamaysky, Harry, 2019. "Does Unusual News Forecast Market Stress?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(5), pages 1937-1974, October.
- Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
- Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Panos K. Pouliasis & Ioannis Kyriakou, 2014. "Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1507-1539.
- Jeon, Yoontae & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2022. "News as sources of jumps in stock returns: Evidence from 21 million news articles for 9000 companies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 1-17.
- Jin E. Zhang & Eric C. Chang & Huimin Zhao, 2020. "Market Excess Returns, Variance and the Third Cumulant," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 605-637, September.
- Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: Extracting what has been left," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
- Wang, Yaw-Huei & Keswani, Aneel & Taylor, Stephen J., 2006. "The relationships between sentiment, returns and volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-123.
- Leippold, Markus, 2023. "Sentiment spin: Attacking financial sentiment with GPT-3," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007.
"Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Calomiris, Charles W. & Mamaysky, Harry, 2019. "How news and its context drive risk and returns around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 299-336.
- Markus Leippold, 2023. "Sentiment Spin: Attacking Financial Sentiment with GPT-3," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-11, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014.
"The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
- Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova, 2013. "The VIX, the Variance Premium and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 18995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hoerova, Marie & Bekaert, Geert, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Working Paper Series 1675, European Central Bank.
- Groß-Klußmann, Axel & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2011. "When machines read the news: Using automated text analytics to quantify high frequency news-implied market reactions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 321-340, March.
- Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "Risk appetite and the prices of precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 136-153.
- Manela, Asaf & Moreira, Alan, 2017. "News implied volatility and disaster concerns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 137-162.
- Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: extracting what has been left," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108198, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Birru, Justin & Young, Trevor, 2022. "Sentiment and uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1148-1169.
- Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
- George P Gao & Pengjie Gao & Zhaogang Song, 2018. "Do Hedge Funds Exploit Rare Disaster Concerns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2650-2692.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kisacikoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020.
"Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3871-3912, December.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," NBER Working Papers 25016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gürkaynak, Refet & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Wright, Jonathan, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 13153, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," CESifo Working Paper Series 7229, CESifo.
- Seo, Sung Won & Kim, Jun Sik, 2015. "The information content of option-implied information for volatility forecasting with investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-120.
- Liu, Qing & Wang, Shouyang & Sui, Cong, 2023. "Risk appetite and option prices: Evidence from the Chinese SSE50 options market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
- Adlai Fisher & Charles Martineau & Jinfei Sheng, 2022. "Macroeconomic Attention and Announcement Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5057-5093.
- Dai, Zhifeng & Chang, Xiaoming, 2021. "Forecasting stock market volatility: Can the risk aversion measure exert an important role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2021.
"Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 369-410, October.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2015. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?," NBER Working Papers 21803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
- Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
- Leland Bybee & Bryan Kelly & Yinan Su & Tarun Ramadorai, 2023. "Narrative Asset Pricing: Interpretable Systematic Risk Factors from News Text," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(12), pages 4759-4787.
- Mark Johnman & Bruce James Vanstone & Adrian Gepp, 2018. "Predicting FTSE 100 returns and volatility using sentiment analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 253-274, November.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Xuhui (Nick) Pan, 2022. "The State Price Density Implied by Crude Oil Futures and Option Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 1064-1103.
- Qunzi Zhang, 2021. "One hundred years of rare disaster concerns and commodity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 1891-1915, December.
- Obaid, Khaled & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2022. "A picture is worth a thousand words: Measuring investor sentiment by combining machine learning and photos from news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 273-297.
- Abdollahi, Hooman, 2023. "Oil price volatility and new evidence from news and Twitter," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
- Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2009.
"Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 579-629, April.
- Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-37, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Uppal, Raman & Dumas, Bernard & Kurshev, Alexander, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6455, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
- Jawadi, Fredj & Bourghelle, David & Rozin, Philippe & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Sentiment and energy price volatility: A nonlinear high frequency analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Yongmiao Hong & Fuwei Jiang & Lingchao Meng & Bowen Xue, 2025. "Forecasting Inflation Using Economic Narratives," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 216-231, January.
- Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
- Bing Han, 2008. "Investor Sentiment and Option Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 387-414, January.
- Gong, Jue & Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "How do market volatility and risk aversion sentiment inter-influence over time? Evidence from Chinese SSE 50 ETF options," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Chi, Yeguang & El-Jahel, Lina & Vu, Thanh, 2024. "Novel and old news sentiment in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
- Gao, Xiang & Koedijk, Kees & Walther, Thomas & Wang, Zhan, 2025. "Relative investor sentiment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
- Yun Liu & Dengshi Huang & Jianan Zhou & Sirui Wang, 2024. "Does image sentiment of major public emergency affect the stock market performance? New insight from deep learning techniques," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 4447-4472, December.
- Jin, Xuejun & Chen, Cheng & Yang, Xiaolan, 2024. "The effect of international media news on the global stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 50-69.
- Andres Algaba & David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Samuel Borms & Kris Boudt, 2020. "Econometrics Meets Sentiment: An Overview Of Methodology And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 512-547, July.
- Huynh, Nhan & De Mello, Lurion & Li, Kai, 2025. "Evolution of investor sentiment: A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
- Gu, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong & Wu, Shijia, 2025. "GIFfluence: A Visual Approach to Investor Sentiment and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 127438, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
- Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau, 2024.
"A Green Wave in Media: A Change of Tack in Stock Markets,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1026-1057, October.
- Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau, 2024. "A Green Wave in Media: A Change of Tack in Stock Markets," Post-Print hal-04706501, HAL.
- Zhang, Cheng & Gao, Bin & Xu, Xiangrong & Qin, Mimi, 2025. "MFA RPC news sentiment and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
- Pan, Zhiyuan & Zhong, Hao & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Juan, 2024. "Forecasting oil futures returns with news," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
- Maslyuk-Escobedo, Svetlana & Rotaru, Kristian & Dokumentov, Alexander, 2017. "News sentiment and jumps in energy spot and futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 186-210.
- Zhang, Junhuan & Zhang, Ziyan & Wen, Jiaqi, 2025. "A multifactor model using large language models and multimodal investor sentiment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
- Babolmorad, N. & Massoud, N., 2025. "Supervising Sentiment Models: Market Signals or Human Expertise?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2577, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Liu, Yanchu, 2022.
"Media-expressed tone, option characteristics, and stock return predictability,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
- Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Liu, Yanchu, 2019. "Media-expressed tone, Option Characteristics, and Stock Return Predictability," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-015, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
- Nida Çakır Melek & Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2020. "Big Data Meets the Turbulent Oil Market," Research Working Paper RWP 20-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised Nov 2022.
- Yue‐Jun Zhang & Yuan‐Yuan Zhang & Han Zhang & Zhuo Tang, 2026. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Volatility With Analyst Commentary Sentiment: A Nonlinear Analysis Using Deep‐Learning Models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(1), pages 121-137, January.
- García, Diego & Hu, Xiaowen & Rohrer, Maximilian, 2023. "The colour of finance words," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 525-549.
- Bai, Xiwen & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee & Jakher, Astha, 2021. "Shipping sentiment and the dry bulk shipping freight market: New evidence from newspaper coverage," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
- Kostopoulos, Dimitrios & Meyer, Steffen, 2018. "Disentangling investor sentiment: Mood and household attitudes towards the economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 28-78.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:46:y:2026:i:3:p:489-510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.
Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v46y2026i3p489-510.html