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Speculation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Listed:
  • Francisco Barillas
  • Kristoffer P. Nimark

Abstract

We develop and estimate a tractable equilibrium term structure model populated with rational but heterogeneously informed traders that take on speculative positions to exploit what they perceive to be inaccurate market expectations about future bond prices. The speculative motive is an important driver of trading volume. Yield dynamics due to speculation are (1) statistically distinct from classical term structure components due to risk premiums and expectations about future short rates and are orthogonal to public information available to traders in real time and (2) quantitatively important, accounting for a substantial fraction of the variation of long maturity U.S. bond yields. Received May 12, 2014; editorial decision May 10, 2016 by Editor Pietro Veronesi.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2017. "Speculation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 4003-4037.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:11:p:4003-4037.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhx059
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shuo Cao & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2020. "Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff Reports 934, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Andrea Buraschi & Paul Whelan, 2022. "Speculation, Sentiment, and Interest Rates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2308-2329, March.
    3. Jonathan J Adams, 2019. "Macroeconomic Models with Incomplete Information and Endogenous Signals," Working Papers 001004, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    4. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Christian Grisse, 2023. "Lower Bound Uncertainty and Long‐Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 619-634, March.
    8. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2019. "Speculation and the Bond Market: An Empirical No-Arbitrage Framework," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4179-4203, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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