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Determining the Probability of Default and Risk-Rating Class for Loans in the Seventh Farm Credit District Portfolio


  • Allen M. Featherstone
  • Laura M. Roessler
  • Peter J. Barry


Credit risk is the primary risk facing financial institutions. With the proposed guidelines under the New Basel Accord, financial institutions will benefit from better assessing their risks. The probability of default (PD) and risk-rating class is studied for 157,853 loans in the Seventh Farm Credit District Portfolio. Repayment capacity, owner equity, and working capital origination loans are important determinants of the PD. Standard & Poor's (S&P) reported probabilities of default were used to classify each of the loans into a risk-rating class. The average predicted PD is 1.61%, which would fall into the BB— S&P class. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Allen M. Featherstone & Laura M. Roessler & Peter J. Barry, 2006. "Determining the Probability of Default and Risk-Rating Class for Loans in the Seventh Farm Credit District Portfolio," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 4-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:28:y:2006:i:1:p:4-23

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. anonymous, 2001. "Guidance on risk management of leveraged financing," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 413-414.
    2. Allen M. Featherstone & Christian R. Boessen, 1994. "Loan Loss Severity of Agricultural Mortgages," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 249-258.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dressler, Jonathan B. & Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Mortgage Termination at AgChoice Farm Credit," Proceedings: 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006; Washington, DC 133077, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Amelie Jouault & Allen M. Featherstone, 2011. "Determining the Probability of Default of Agricultural Loans in a French Bank," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-1.
    3. Allen M. Featherstone & Christine A. Wilson & Terry L. Kastens & John D. Jones, 2007. "Factors affecting the agricultural loan decision-making process," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 13-33, May.
    4. Brewer, Brady & Wilson, Christine & Featherstone, Allen & Harris, J. & Erickson, Ken & Hallahan, Charles, 2012. "Measuring the Financial Health of U.S. Production Agriculture," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
    5. Durguner, Seda & Barry, Peter J. & Katchova, Ani L., 2006. "Credit Scoring Models: A Comparison between Crop and Livestock Farms," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21431, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Brian C. Briggeman, 2011. "The importance of off-farm income to servicing farm debt," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I.
    7. Jarko Fidrmuc & Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms and Loan Defaults," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, May.
    8. Featherstone, Allen M. & Langemeier, Michael R. & Haverkamp, Kent, 2006. "Credit Quality of Kansas Farms," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35309, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Quaye, Frederick & Hartarska, Valentina & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2015. "Farmer Credit Delinquency in Southeastern US: Factors and Behavior Prediction," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196914, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Jonathan B. Dressler & Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2010. "Survival analysis and mortgage termination at AgChoice ACA," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(1), pages 21-36, May.

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