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Determining the Probability of Default and Risk-Rating Class for Loans in the Seventh Farm Credit District Portfolio

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  • Allen M. Featherstone
  • Laura M. Roessler
  • Peter J. Barry

Abstract

Credit risk is the primary risk facing financial institutions. With the proposed guidelines under the New Basel Accord, financial institutions will benefit from better assessing their risks. The probability of default (PD) and risk-rating class is studied for 157,853 loans in the Seventh Farm Credit District Portfolio. Repayment capacity, owner equity, and working capital origination loans are important determinants of the PD. Standard & Poor's (S&P) reported probabilities of default were used to classify each of the loans into a risk-rating class. The average predicted PD is 1.61%, which would fall into the BB— S&P class. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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  • Allen M. Featherstone & Laura M. Roessler & Peter J. Barry, 2006. "Determining the Probability of Default and Risk-Rating Class for Loans in the Seventh Farm Credit District Portfolio," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 4-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:28:y:2006:i:1:p:4-23
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9353.2006.00270.x
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    1. Khoju, Madhab R. & Barry, Peter J., 1993. "Business Performance Based Credit Scoring Models: A New Approach to Credit Evaluation," 1993 Regional Committee NC-207, October 4-5, 1993, Chicago, Illinois 131419, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Allen M. Featherstone & Christian R. Boessen, 1994. "Loan Loss Severity of Agricultural Mortgages," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 249-258.
    3. anonymous, 2001. "Guidance on risk management of leveraged financing," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 413-414.
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    1. Dressler, Jonathan B. & Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Mortgage Termination at AgChoice Farm Credit," 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006, Washington, DC 133077, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Amelie Jouault & Allen M. Featherstone, 2011. "Determining the Probability of Default of Agricultural Loans in a French Bank," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-1.
    3. Frederick Murdoch Quaye & Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska, 2017. "Factors Affecting Farm Loan Delinquency in the Southeast," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 75-92, December.
    4. Deb Narayan Barik & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2022. "Does limited liability reduce leveraged risk?: The case of loan portfolio management," Papers 2209.12636, arXiv.org.
    5. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark, 2010. "Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Internal Migrations in Brazil," Conference papers 331926, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Boratyńska, Katarzyna & Grzegorzewska, Emilia, 2018. "Bankruptcy prediction in the agribusiness sector: Lessons from quantitative and qualitative approaches," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 175-181.
    7. Regmi, Madhav & Featherstone, Allen Merril, 2018. "Differential Taxation In Agricultural Credit Market," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266692, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Allen M. Featherstone & Christine A. Wilson & Terry L. Kastens & John D. Jones, 2007. "Factors affecting the agricultural loan decision‐making process," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 67(1), pages 13-33, May.
    9. Omobolaji Omobitan & Aditya R. Khanal, 2022. "Examining Farm Financial Management: How Do Small US Farms Meet Their Agricultural Expenses?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Brewer, Brady & Wilson, Christine & Featherstone, Allen & Harris, J. & Erickson, Ken & Hallahan, Charles, 2012. "Measuring the Financial Health of U.S. Production Agriculture," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2012, pages 1-16.
    11. Ortiz, Antonio Carlos & Monaco, Henrique & Machado, Vitor & Boehlje, Michael, 2021. "Propensity for premature filing for judicial financial recovery in large-scale agriculture in Brazil," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 24(4), February.
    12. Durguner, Seda & Barry, Peter J. & Katchova, Ani L., 2006. "Credit Scoring Models: A Comparison between Crop and Livestock Farms," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21431, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Brian C. Briggeman, 2011. "The importance of off-farm income to servicing farm debt," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q I).
    14. Hisham S. El-Osta, 2016. "Farmland Ownership and Its Impact on the Debt Servicing Capacity Among U.S. Married-Couple Farm Households," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 190-206, November.
    15. Erickson, Kenneth W. & Featherstone, Allen M. & Subedi, Dipak & Nehring, Richard F. & Harris, James Michael, 2017. "How Fluctuations in Farm and Off-Farm Income Could Affect the Financial Performance of U.S. Farm Operator Dairy Farms: A Farm-level Analysis," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258488, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Jarko Fidrmuc & Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms and Loan Defaults," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, May.
    17. Featherstone, Allen M. & Langemeier, Michael R. & Haverkamp, Kent, 2006. "Credit Quality of Kansas Farms," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35309, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    18. Nicholas D. Paulson & Allen M. Featherstone & Joleen C. Hadrich, 2020. "Distribution of Market Facilitation Program Payments and their Financial Impact for Illinois, Kansas, and Minnesota Farms," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 227-244, June.
    19. Quaye, Frederick & Hartarska, Valentina & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2015. "Farmer Credit Delinquency in Southeastern US: Factors and Behavior Prediction," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196914, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    20. Christine Wilson & Allan Featherston & Terry Kastens & John Jones, 2006. "Determining What's Really Important to Lenders: Factors Affecting the Agricultural Loan Decision-Making Process," Working Papers 06-07, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    21. Featherstone, Allen M. & Ifft, Jennifer & Yeager, Elizabeth A. & Hinkle, Bailey, 2022. "Section 179 and Bonus Depreciation Effect on Machinery Investment," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322480, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    22. Yifei Wu & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Brady E. Brewer, 2021. "The susceptibility of farmland loans to default under falling farmland and commodity prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 561-574, July.
    23. Jonathan B. Dressler & Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2010. "Survival analysis and mortgage termination at AgChoice ACA," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(1), pages 21-36, May.

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