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Is it possible to prepare for a pandemic?

Author

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  • Robert Tucker Omberg
  • Alex Tabarrok

Abstract

How effective were investments in pandemic preparation? We use a comprehensive and detailed measure of pandemic preparedness, the Global Health Security (GHS) Index produced by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU), to measure which investments in pandemic preparedness reduced infections, deaths, excess deaths, or otherwise ameliorated or shortened the pandemic. We also look at whether values or attitudinal factors such as individualism, willingness to sacrifice, or trust in government—which might be considered a form of cultural pandemic preparedness—influenced the course of the pandemic. Our primary finding is that almost no form of pandemic preparedness helped to ameliorate or shorten the pandemic. Compared to other countries, the United States did not perform poorly because of cultural values such as individualism, collectivism, selfishness, or lack of trust. General state capacity, as opposed to specific pandemic investments, is one of the few factors which appears to improve pandemic performance. Understanding the most effective forms of pandemic preparedness can help guide future investments. Our results may also suggest that either we aren’t measuring what is important or that pandemic preparedness is a global public good.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Tucker Omberg & Alex Tabarrok, 2022. "Is it possible to prepare for a pandemic?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 851-875.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:38:y:2022:i:4:p:851-875.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grac035
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matt Clancy, 2023. "The Returns to Science in the Presence of Technological Risk," Papers 2312.14289, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    2. Yenny Guzman-Ruiz & Joshua Choe & Gerard F. Anderson & Antonio J. Trujillo, 2025. "Trust in Government and COVID-19 Preventive Behaviors," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 4(1), pages 150-169, March.
    3. Giménez, Víctor & Prior, Diego & Thieme, Claudio & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2024. "International comparisons of COVID-19 pandemic management: What can be learned from activity analysis techniques?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Scott Duke Kominers & Alex Tabarrok, 2022. "Vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic: lessons from failure and success," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 719-741.

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