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On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo BoveBy
  • Leandro Elia
  • Ron P Smith

Abstract

We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts has a negative effect on the GDP level, it is very often insignificant. More importantly, however, both methods display a wide variety of individual effects, and in a large number of countries civil war has either no effect or a positive and significant impact on the prospect for economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo BoveBy & Leandro Elia & Ron P Smith, 2017. "On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 550-568.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:69:y:2017:i:3:p:550-568.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpw050
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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