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Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy

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  • Turnovsky, Stephen J

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that if current shocks are observed instantaneously, output can be stabilized perfectly for completely general supply disturbances, using simple monetary rules based only on: (1) the current shock; (2) the previous forecast of the current shock; and (3) the forecast for just one period ahead. The optimal rule can be expressed in an infinite number of ways and various alternatives are considered. With optimal wage indexation, the monetary rule is even simpler. If current shocks are not observed instantaneously, but are inferred from other signals, the optimal rules are of the same form, with the current perceived disturbance replacing the actual. Copyright 1987 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1987. "Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 20-37, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:39:y:1987:i:1:p:20-37
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    Cited by:

    1. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777, August.
    2. Juan Carlos Castañeda & Carlos Eduardo Castillo, 2005. "Supply Shocks in the Transition Towards an Inflation Targeting Reform: an Empirical Evidence for Guatemala," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 354, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Robert Rennhack, 1991. "La Conducción de la Política Monetaria," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 28(83), pages 11-20.

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