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Inference in Infinite Superpositions of Non-Gaussian Ornstein--Uhlenbeck Processes Using Bayesian Nonparametic Methods

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  • J. E. Griffin

Abstract

This paper describes a Bayesian nonparametric approach to volatility estimation. Volatility is assumed to follow a superposition of an infinite number of Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes driven by a compound Poisson process with a parametric or nonparametric jump size distribution. This model allows a wide range of possible dependencies and marginal distributions for volatility. The properties of the model and prior specification are discussed, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for inference is described. The model is fitted to daily returns of four indices: the Standard and Poors 500, the NASDAQ 100, the FTSE 100, and the Nikkei 225. (JEL: C11, C14, C22) Copyright The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • J. E. Griffin, 2011. "Inference in Infinite Superpositions of Non-Gaussian Ornstein--Uhlenbeck Processes Using Bayesian Nonparametic Methods," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(3), pages 519-549, Summer.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:9:y:2011:i:3:p:519-549
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbq027
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    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR)," Working Papers 2016:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2011. "Beta-product Poisson-Dirichlet Processes," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 12160, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2014. "Beta-product dependent Pitman–Yor processes for Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 49-72.
    4. Behme, Anita & Chong, Carsten & Klüppelberg, Claudia, 2015. "Superposition of COGARCH processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(4), pages 1426-1469.
    5. Peluso, Stefano & Mira, Antonietta & Muliere, Pietro, 2015. "Reinforced urn processes for credit risk models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 1-12.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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