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The impact of the Crimea annexation on agricultural trade: A structural gravity approach

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  • Dimitrios Dadakas
  • Renáta Pitoňáková
  • Evangelos Ioannidis

Abstract

We examine the impact of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea on global agricultural trade flows. Using a structural gravity model with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and intra-country sales, we differentiate the effects of the war from those of the sanctions on trade. We estimate conditional General Equilibrium PPML counterfactual scenarios and apply a “conventional two-step approach” to assess trade potential for Russia, Ukraine and European Union members. Our results suggest that while both Russia’s and Ukraine’s trade flows benefited during the post-annexation period, sanctions had a negative impact, with Russia experiencing more severe effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Dadakas & Renáta Pitoňáková & Evangelos Ioannidis, 2025. "The impact of the Crimea annexation on agricultural trade: A structural gravity approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 52(3), pages 531-566.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:52:y:2025:i:3:p:531-566.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbaf010
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