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Modeling, Evaluation, and Methodology in the New Century

Author

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  • Clive W. J. Granger

Abstract

The modern world has influenced the approach to empirical modeling and consequently the approach to methodology in general. The question of whether to base a model on an economic theory is easier when several models can be constructed, but an empirical evaluation analysis is required. Starting with a widely specified model and using a reduction procedure is currently a popular process; it is unclear if the reduction should be to a single or to a few alternatives. New methodologies are required for conditional predictive distributions, which are the models of the future. (JEL B41, C50) Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive W. J. Granger, 2005. "Modeling, Evaluation, and Methodology in the New Century," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 1-12, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:43:y:2005:i:1:p:1-12
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ei/cbi001
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Rettenmaier & Zijun Wang, 2013. "What determines health: a causal analysis using county level data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(5), pages 821-834, October.
    2. David Bessler & Zijun Wang, 2012. "D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 295-314, August.
    3. Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2008. "Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 391-406.
    4. Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2016. "Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(45), pages 4366-4378, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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