IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/cjrecs/v18y2025i1p25-40..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demography and income in the 21st century: a long-run perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Brakman
  • Tristan Kohl
  • Charles van Marrewijk

Abstract

The world faces massive demographic changes in the 21st century. We analyse the impact of changes in the share of the working-age population for the global income distribution. First, the historical impact of demography on economic growth indicates that a 1% higher share of the working-age population in the total population results in a 0.173 percentage points higher income growth rate. Second, we use United Nations population projections to predict income changes for the remainder of this century. Third, we show how the share of income shifts away from Europe, North America and China towards South Asia and Africa, such that the current global economic powers will see their influence on world affairs decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Brakman & Tristan Kohl & Charles van Marrewijk, 2025. "Demography and income in the 21st century: a long-run perspective," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(1), pages 25-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:18:y:2025:i:1:p:25-40.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cjres/rsae040
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    2. Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2007. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 552-565, August.
    3. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    4. Cai, Jie & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2016. "Population aging and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Ke Gu & Andrey Stoyanov, 2019. "Skills, population aging, and the pattern of international trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 499-519, May.
    6. Wu, Feifei & Yang, Hongna & Gao, Bo & Gu, Yan, 2021. "Old, not yet rich? The impact of population aging on export upgrading in developing countries," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steven Brakman & Tristan Kohl & Charles van Marrewijk, 2025. "DemoGravity: World Population and Trade in the 21st Century," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 486-501, May.
    2. Wu, Feifei & Xu, Peipei & Gao, Bo & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Export contraction and input switching in an aging China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    4. David E. BLOOM & Michael KUHN & Klaus PRETTNER, 2017. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    5. Diaz-Bautista, Alejandro, 2002. "The role of telecommunications infrastructure and human capital: Mexico´s economic growth and convergence," ERSA conference papers ersa02p102, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Munir Ahmad & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2019. "Does Demographic Transition with Human Capital Dynamics Matter for Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to GMM," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 753-772, April.
    7. Diane Macunovich, 2012. "The role of demographics in precipitating economic downturns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 783-807, July.
    8. Kogel, Tomas, 2005. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 147-173, February.
    9. Balázs Zélity, 2023. "Age diversity and aggregate productivity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1863-1899, July.
    10. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    11. Dennis S. Mapa & Kristine Joy S. Briones, 2007. "Robustness procedures in economic growth regression models," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 71-84, December.
    12. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita income," Occasional Papers 0604, Banco de España.
    13. Thomas Lindh, 2004. "Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 19-49.
    14. Ilkhom SHARIPOV, 2016. "ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU’S EaP COUNTRIES: DETERMINANTS AND PROSPECTS," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 169-187.
    15. Jocelyn E. Finlay & Iván Mejía-Guevara & Yoko Akachi, 2016. "Delayed marriage, contraceptive use, and breastfeeding: Fertility patterns over time and wealth quintiles in sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Mine Yilmazer & Serkan inar, 2015. "Human Capabilities and Economic Growth: A Comparative Human Capability Index," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 843-853.
    17. Husain, Muhammad Jami, 2010. "Contribution of health to economic development: A survey and overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-52.
    18. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    19. E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," Development Economics Working Papers 23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    20. Durr-e-Nayab, 2008. "Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 1-26.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:18:y:2025:i:1:p:25-40.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/cjres .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.