International Financial Volatility and Commodity Exports: Evidence from the Thai Agricultural Sector
Using 1981--2006 data from the Bank of Thailand, I estimate the effect of four measures of real exchange rate volatility on Thai exports of five key agricultural commodities, controlling for both the level of the real exchange rate and foreign incomes. Estimates of the effect of volatility on export volume are generally negative and often significant, lending support to a range of theoretical models that predict such an effect. No such relationship exists between lagged values of exchange rate volatility and agricultural production. The range of results obtained using various measures of volatility suggests caution in comparing studies using different measures. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.
Volume (Year): 92 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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