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Forecasting Halibut Biomass Using System Theoretic Time-Series Methods


  • Keith R. Criddle
  • Arthur M. Havenner


A new procedure introduced by Masanao Aoki uses the ideas of linear systems theory to identify and estimate time-series models. A slightly modified version of this procedure is used to forecast halibut biomass in total and by regulatory area and subarea, and the out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated for eight years. All models produce highly accurate forecasts of biomass, with errors well within the bounds required for setting catch limits in the following year.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith R. Criddle & Arthur M. Havenner, 1989. "Forecasting Halibut Biomass Using System Theoretic Time-Series Methods," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 422-431.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:71:y:1989:i:2:p:422-431.

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    Cited by:

    1. Homans, Frances R. & Wilen, James E., 1997. "A Model of Regulated Open Access Resource Use," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Masanao Aoki, 1991. "Two Complementary Representations of Multiple Time Series in State Space Innovation Forms," UCLA Economics Working Papers 628, UCLA Department of Economics.

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