Fertilizer Supply and Grain Production in Communist China

This article discusses the growth of the chemical-fertilizer industry in Communist China and attempts to make a tentative estimate of the amount of grain China may produce as a result of intensive fertilizer application. Statistical data on production, imports, and consumption are examined and compared with other countries to evaluate the rapidity of growth, the degree of dependency on foreign supply, and the intensity of fertilization in China. Problems involved in future development, such as technology and raw materials, are explored. A careful examination is made to determine the grain-yield responses to fertilizer application by collecting relevant observations made and published in various Chinese agricultural journals. A question is then posed as follows: Given that the production, imports, and consumption of chemical fertilizer will be as estimated and based on the grain-yield responses to fertilizer as determined, can China produce adequate grain to improve per-capita food consumption? The answer derived in this article is unfortunately negative; that is, China can maintain only the 1957 level of grain consumption if the population growth remains at 2 percent per annum. In other words, the chemical-fertilizer industry has made and will probably continue to make a spectacular growth but Communist China will continue to face grain shortages in the near future.