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Prognosis Of Monthly Unemployment Rate In The European Union Through Methods Based On Econometric Models

Author

Listed:
  • Gagea Mariana,

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Balan Christiana Brigitte

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

In this paper we propose the prognosis of the unemployment rate in the European Union through the Box-Jenkins method and the TRAMO/SEATS method as well as the detection of the method which proves to provide the best results. The monthly unemployment rate in the European Union is affected by seasonal variations of deterministic and stochastic nature. The prognosis through the Box-Jenkins nature supposes the separate consideration of seasonal variations, according to their specific nature. The stochastic seasonal variations are modelled and prognosticated simultaneously with the other components of the time series, based on the generating stochastic process. The prognosis of the monthly unemployment rate in the European Union through the TRAMO/SEATS methods is done by aggregating the individual prognoses of the components of the time series, obtained according to the stochastic processes models that generate them.

Suggested Citation

  • Gagea Mariana, & Balan Christiana Brigitte, 2008. "Prognosis Of Monthly Unemployment Rate In The European Union Through Methods Based On Econometric Models," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 848-853, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:848-853
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    seasonal variations; stochastic process; moving average; prognosis; performance indicators of the prognosis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

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