IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oec/stdkab/5kgg5k52xb5c.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Rolf Scheufele

Abstract

This paper examines the properties of qualitative inflation expectations collected from economic experts for Germany. It describes their characteristics relating to rationality and Granger causality. An out-of-sample simulation study investigates whether this indicator is suitable for inflation forecasting. Results from other standard forecasting models are considered and compared with models employing survey measures. We find that a model using survey expectations outperforms most of the competing models. Moreover, we find some evidence that the survey indicator already contains information from other model types (e.g. Phillips curve models). However, the forecast quality may be further improved by completely taking into account information from some financial indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolf Scheufele, 2011. "Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2011(1), pages 29-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5kgg5k52xb5c
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2011-5kgg5k52xb5c
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2011-5kgg5k52xb5c
    Download Restriction: Full text available to READ online. PDF download available to OECD iLibrary subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/jbcma-2011-5kgg5k52xb5c?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2018. "Do inflation expectations granger cause inflation?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 403-431, August.
    2. Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
    3. Piotr Białowolski, 2016. "The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 509-528, March.
    4. Tomasz Łyziak, 2016. "Do inflation expectations matter in a stylised New Keynesian model? The case of Poland," NBP Working Papers 234, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    5. Raïsa Basselier & David de Antonio Liedo & Jana Jonckheere & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Can inflation expectations in business or consumer surveys improve inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Research 348, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Brückbauer, Frank & Schröder, Michael, 2021. "Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Halina Kowalczyk & Tomasz Lyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2013. "A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context," NBP Working Papers 142, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    8. Mellina, Sathya & Schmidt, Tobias, 2018. "The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 32/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Sunil Kumar, 2016. "Latent class analyisis for reliable measure of inflation expectation in the indian public," Papers 1603.01397, arXiv.org.
    10. Mossfeldt, Marcus & Stockhammar, Pär, 2016. "Forecasting Goods and Services Inflation in Sweden," Working Papers 146, National Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Ina Nurmalia Kurniati, 2015. "Forecasting Growth Of Third Party Funds," Working Papers WP/10/2015, Bank Indonesia.
    12. Piotr Białowolski, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with consumer survey data – application of multi-group confirmatory factor analysis to elimination of the general sentiment factor," NBP Working Papers 100, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    13. Brückbauer Frank & Schröder Michael, 2023. "The ZEW Financial Market Survey Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(3-4), pages 451-469, June.
    14. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5kgg5k52xb5c. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oecddfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.