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Tracking economic activity in the euro area: Multivariate direct filter approach

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  • Ginters Buss

Abstract

The paper applies the multivariate direct filter approach on selected business and consumer confidence indicators, and share price data to construct a real-time indicator tracking the medium-to-long-run component of the quarterly growth of the euro area gross domestic product. Results show that the created indicator behaves similarly to another established indicator, Eurocoin, but slightly leads it after mid 2009. The new indicator is also compared to the Markit Euro Area Composite Purchasing Managers Index and is found to be leading it by about one month as well as being smoother. Overall, the multivariate direct filter approach is found to have merit in tracking business cycle developments, however, the increasing number of free coefficients is an issue for the filter to be applied to detailed datasets.Keywords: real-time signal extraction, business cycles, multivariate time series JEL classification: C13, C32, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Ginters Buss, 2015. "Tracking economic activity in the euro area: Multivariate direct filter approach," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(2), pages 5-25.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5js0bcts1433
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2014-5js0bcts1433
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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