IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nsr/niesre/iwinteryy2026p7-16.html

Global Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Abstract

Background, Forecast and Financial conditions and Risk:Early last year President Trump's proposals to set high tariff rates on imports from many countries into the United States marked a major change in economic policy. There was, in addition, uncertainty about what those tariff rates would ultimately be as countries began or intensified trade negotiations with the United States. The frequent amendments to initially proposed tariff rates and threats of retaliation, together with rounds of trade negotiations, resulted in measures of trade uncertainty (and policy uncertainty) rising steeply in the first half of last year before easing back as tariff actions were clarified (figure 1). By the end of the year the average effective tariff rate in the United States is estimated to have risen from around 2 per cent to around 17 per cent (source: Yale Budget Lab). Read more in publication.

Suggested Citation

  • National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2026. "Global Conditions," National Institute Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue Winter, pages 7-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesre:i:winteryy:2026p:7-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/UK-Economic-Outlook-Winter-2026.pdf?ver=EyxXRRh0JbNxFNGn7b3d
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesre:i:winteryy:2026p:7-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library & Information Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.