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In Full-Information Estimates, Long-Run Risks Explain at Most a Quarter of P/D Variance, and Habit Explains Even Less

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  • Andrew Y. Chen
  • Fabian Winkler
  • Rebecca Wasyk

Abstract

Many consumption-based models succeed in matching long lists of asset price moments. We propose an alternative, full-information Bayesian evaluation that decomposes the price-dividend ratio (p/d) into contributions from long-run risks, habit, and a residual. We find that long-run risks account for less than 25% of the variance of p/d and that habit’s contribution is negligible. This result is robust to the prior, including priors that assume long-run risks in consumption and highly persistent habit. However, the residual mostly tracks decades-long movements in p/d. At business cycle frequency, long-run risks explain about 70% of the movements of p/d while habit’s contribution stays negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Y. Chen & Fabian Winkler & Rebecca Wasyk, 2021. "In Full-Information Estimates, Long-Run Risks Explain at Most a Quarter of P/D Variance, and Habit Explains Even Less," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 10(3), pages 329-381, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jnlcfr:104.00000092
    DOI: 10.1561/104.00000092
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    Keywords

    Long run risks; Rare disasters; Habit; Bayesian estimation; Particle filter; Time-varying beliefs; Time-varying preferences; Excess volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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