An Assessment of Citizens' Capacity for Prospective Issue Voting using Incentivized Forecasting

The ability of voters to predict the future policy-related behavior of candidates is essential to a well-functioning representative democracy. But existing studies have difficulty distinguishing between detailed knowledge of individual candidates and the use of coarse partisan cues when making prospective judgments. This article uses incentivized forecasting of candidates' future interest group ratings, which allows for finer distinctions than yea or nay votes on bills. We examine the extent to which citizens can not only identify the typical issue positions of Democrats and Republicans but also distinguish between co-partisan legislators. First, we find a strong relationship between citizen's prospective beliefs and candidates' actual positions once elected to office. Furthermore, we find that many of these relationships persist even when comparing candidates of the same party. This suggests that a meaningful portion of citizens go beyond party cues to distinguish the ideological extremity of individual candidates for office. Comparing accuracy across citizens, we find a strong correlation between respondents' political interest and the accuracy of their prospective beliefs and a negative relationship between respondents' strength of political identification and accuracy.