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Projeção de um cenário econômico e de desmatamento para a Amazônia Legal brasileira entre 2006 e 2030 [Economic and deforestation scenario for the Brazilian Amazon between 2006 and 2030]

Author

Listed:
  • Terciane Sabadini Carvalho

    (UFPR)

  • Edson Paulo Domingues

    (UFMG)

Abstract

The Legal Amazon was the target of development policies during the twentieth century. With different structural characteristics from the rest of Brazil and possessing the largest tropical forest of the world, the result was economic growth and deforestation. Some elements, such as the developmental policies from the 1970s and 1980s, investments in infrastructure, livestock and agriculture, have been pointed out as the determinants of deforestation. This paper presents a methodology for projecting deforestation in the different regions within the Legal Amazon caused by economic factors and structural conditions. We thus used a dynamic interregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a specification for land use, an innovation within the literature. The results for the period under study (2006-2030) showed that regions with higher growth and deforestation would be those located in the arc of deforestation (Mato Grosso, Pará e Rondônia), especially areas of soybean and cattle production.

Suggested Citation

  • Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Edson Paulo Domingues, 2016. "Projeção de um cenário econômico e de desmatamento para a Amazônia Legal brasileira entre 2006 e 2030 [Economic and deforestation scenario for the Brazilian Amazon between 2006 and 2030]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 26(2), pages 585-621, May-Augus.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:26:y:2016:i:2:p:585-621
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Amazon; computable general equilibrium; land use; deforestation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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