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Os determinantes da inflação brasileira recente: estimações utilizando redes neurais [Determinants of recent Brazilian inflation: Estimates using neural networks]

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Figueiredo Summa

    (IE/UFRJ)

  • Leonardo Macrini

    (ITR/UFRRJ)

Abstract

In this paper we assess the determinants of recent Brazilian inflation, specifically since 1999 when the Inflation Targeting System was implemented. Using a Neural Network model, we evaluate: (1) if the demand pressures, measured by the output gap and unemployment gap, have a clear and systematic impact on inflation, (2) if “imported inflation”, including tradable goods inflation in dollars and the nominal exchange rate changes, exerts a significant influence on inflation, and (3) if the channel of interest rates cost is empirically verified in the Brazilian case. We conclude that recent Brazilian inflation depends mainly on inflation inertia, “imported inflation” and changes in the nominal interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Figueiredo Summa & Leonardo Macrini, 2014. "Os determinantes da inflação brasileira recente: estimações utilizando redes neurais [Determinants of recent Brazilian inflation: Estimates using neural networks]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 24(2), pages 279-296, May-Augus.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:24:y:2014:i:2:p:279-296
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation targeting system; Brazilian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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