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Fatores de influência no preço do milho no Brasil [Factors that influence corn prices in Brazil]

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Eduardo Caldarelli

    (UEL)

  • Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi

    (ESALQ/USP)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to understand the dynamics of the Brazilian corn market by investigating the main factors affecting volumes and prices. Unit roots tests were taken using the DF-GLS - Dickey Fuller Generalized Least Square methodology, and Johansen's co-integration tests (1988). The estimated model for price adjustment was a Self-Regression Vector Error Correction Model – VEC, with identification by the Sims-Bernanke procedure. We conclude that there is a significant interaction between the corn and the soybean markets, which present a complementary relationship on the supply side and substitution relationship on the demand side. Additionally, we conclude that macroeconomic factors such as income and interest rates are important in determining corn prices for producers and on the wholesale market. It should be noted that external grain prices play a relatively important role in formation of domestic corn prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Eduardo Caldarelli & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2012. "Fatores de influência no preço do milho no Brasil [Factors that influence corn prices in Brazil]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 22(1), pages 141-164, January-A.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:22:y:2012:i:1:p:141-164
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ramon Felipe Bicudo da Silva & Mateus Batistella & Yue Dou & Emilio Moran & Sara McMillan Torres & Jianguo Liu, 2017. "The Sino-Brazilian Telecoupled Soybean System and Cascading Effects for the Exporting Country," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    corn; soybean; price; time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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