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A construção do conceito de incerteza: uma comparação das contribuições de Knight, Keynes, Shackle e Davidson [The construction of the uncertainty concept: a comparison of the contributions by Knight, Keynes, Shackle and Davidson]

Author

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  • Rogerio P. de Andrade

    (IE/Unicamp)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the uncertainty concept through a reconstitution of the ways in which this notion emerges in the works by Knight, Keynes, Shackle and Davidson. It focuses on the uniqueness of each approach. It is unquestionable that these authors' theories of uncertainty have meaningful resemblances. Nevertheless, although all these treatments share an emphasis on the conceptual distinction between (probabilistic) risk and uncertainty, as well as on their immeasurability, it is fair to say that these authors' approaches to the conceptualisation of uncertainty are distinctive in many respects. Thus, the paper evaluates and contrasts their analyses, concentrating on their peculiarities. It was from this "classical" view of uncertainty (Knight, Keynes, Shackle and Davidson) that a "modern" approach to uncertainty could originally be constructed and further developed, and it is now rooted in current heterodox approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Rogerio P. de Andrade, 2011. "A construção do conceito de incerteza: uma comparação das contribuições de Knight, Keynes, Shackle e Davidson [The construction of the uncertainty concept: a comparison of the contributions by Knight,," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 21(2), pages 171-195, May-Augus.
  • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:21:y:2011:i:2:p:171-195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 473-500.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    4. Gabriel Palma, 2000. "The Magical Realism of Brazilian Economics: How to Create a Financial Crisis by Trying to Avoid One," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2000-16, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; Knight; Keynes; Shackle; Davidson;

    JEL classification:

    • B20 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - General
    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General

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