Analysis of practical applying of project selection method based on the possibility theory

The object of this research is the method of selecting projects based on the possibility theory. This method is applicable to turbulent environment conditions, the «project map» method is based on a structured set of project characteristics. Nevertheless, this method has not been tested for a specific management situation. Therefore, in order to better understand the essence of the proposed method and to study its applicability in practice, experimental studies related to its empirical verification are carried out. As part of the pilot studies of the project selection method on the basis of the possibility theory, the main stages of this method are characterized: – formation of initial data on the «project map» in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, which corresponds to optimistic, pessimistic and most probable options for the implementation of projects; – formation of a system of criteria and limitations, the establishment of confidence levels; – «filtering» projects through a system of restrictions; – selection of the best project from the set, passed «filtration» on the basis of the given criterion, the possibility of using the system of criteria is characterized. As a result of the research, the characteristics of the projects under consideration and the requirements for them are interpreted in terms of the possibility theory. In accordance with the procedure of the method, a project is selected, accompanied by graphic interpretations of operations within the framework of fuzzy logic. The analysis of the influence on the choice of such characteristics used in the method as «reliability» and «possibility» is graphically demonstrated. The carried out experimental studies of the project selection method shows its applicability and reliability of the obtained results. Graphical analysis of fuzzy estimates of the project allows to conduct reasoning about the acceptability of the project under various assumptions about the reliability of the constraints and the possibilities of obtaining the desired result. This increases the value of this method for practical use.