Regionale Arbeitsmarktdisparitäten in der ersten Corona-Welle

The increase in unemployment as a result of COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic varied considerably amongst the 401 cities and administrative districts in Germany. This applies to the severity of the initial shock to the labour market as well as the subsequent development of the recovery throughout autumn 2020. For this time frame a sequence analysis identified four clusters of regional developments in unemployment, ranging from favourable to unfavourable developments in the first seven months of the pandemic. The results from an ordered logistic regression analysis indicated that pre-existing regional disparities were reinforced or intensified during the first wave of the pandemic. There is a correlation between the probability of an unfavourable development in the crisis and a structural weakness in the region, locations in east Germany and regions with higher rates of unemployment before the crisis. Moreover, results show that labour markets in cities and those places with a greater share of employees in the hospitality sector belonged to a cluster that fared worse.